British Intelligence Update as of today Jun. 9
The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) was extended by 60 days on 17 May 2023. However, Russia almost certainly continues to hinder grain exports by deliberately slowing inspections and actively blocking some vessels.
Currently, only one or two ships are being inspected per day, compared with six to eight in Autumn 2022.
Russia is likely attempting to force concessions on the re-opening of the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline, which exports ammonia from Russia through Ukraine, via Odesa. To complicate the situation, in recent days, the pipeline was damaged and is not currently operational.
There is likely to be further Russian rhetoric and obstruction of the BSGI in the weeks prior to the next extension deadline of 16 July 2023.