British Intelligence update on Ukraine War as of Jul. 12
British intelligence agencies have provided an update on the ongoing Ukraine War, shedding light on recent developments and key figures within the Russian military. As of July 12, attention has been drawn to the public appearance of Russian Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov and his briefing with Russian Aerospace Forces Chief of Staff Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov. This update from British intelligence highlights the shifting dynamics within the Russian military following the Wagner mutiny on June 24, 2023.
General Gerasimov’s Television Appearance:
On July 10, 2023, General Valery Gerasimov, Russian Chief of the General Staff, made his first televised appearance since the Wagner mutiny. The mutiny, which occurred on June 24, saw a faction within the Wagner Group attempt to challenge Russian military leadership.
Briefing by Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov:
During Gerasimov’s television appearance, he was observed being briefed via video link by Russian Aerospace Forces Chief of Staff Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov. Afzalov, who has held his position for at least four years, had not previously been extensively featured in public alongside Gerasimov. This increased visibility suggests a potential shift in the balance of power within the Russian military following the mutiny.
Afzalov’s Role and General Surovikin’s Status:
Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov serves as the deputy to Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, General Sergei Surovikin. However, it remains unclear about General Surovikin’s current whereabouts and status. Afzalov’s heightened public profile in recent events indicates a potential sidelining of General Surovikin following the mutiny. The absence of General Surovikin raises questions about his role and influence within the Russian military structure.
Implications and Analysis:
The British intelligence update suggests that the Wagner mutiny has caused significant disruptions and changes within the Russian military hierarchy. General Gerasimov’s televised appearance, coupled with the visible briefing from Colonel-General Afzalov, indicates a potential reconfiguration of power and responsibilities within the military leadership. The sidelining of General Surovikin, if confirmed, raises questions about the internal dynamics of the Russian Armed Forces and the potential consequences for the ongoing Ukraine War.
Conclusion:
The British intelligence update provides insights into recent developments within the Russian military amid the Ukraine War. The appearance of General Gerasimov and his briefing with Colonel-General Afzalov signals potential changes in military leadership following the Wagner mutiny. The status of General Surovikin remains uncertain, emphasizing the fluidity and complexities within the Russian military structure. As the conflict continues, further analysis and monitoring of the Russian military’s internal dynamics will be crucial in understanding its impact on the course of the Ukraine War.
