As the conflict in Ukraine continues, British Intelligence has provided an update on the situation in southern Ukraine, where intense fighting is concentrated in two sectors. The focus of Ukrainian assaults is on Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) south of Orikhiv, while further east, south of Velyka Novosilka, a defending Russian force is drawn from both the Eastern and Southern military districts, leading to potential coordination issues.
Challenges Faced by Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army
The 58 CAA is experiencing significant challenges due to prolonged intense combat. The forward-deployed regiments have been engaged in fighting for over eight weeks, leading to battle fatigue and attrition. This situation is likely impacting the army’s effectiveness and ability to sustain its defensive positions.
Coordination Problems for the Defending Russian Force
In the southern sector, south of Velyka Novosilka, the defending Russian force comprises elements from both the Eastern and Southern military districts. This mix of forces can create coordination issues, as units from different districts may have different operating procedures, communication protocols, and levels of experience.
Pressure on the 5th Combined Army
Within the defending Russian force, the 5th Combined Army is facing particular pressure. This unit is likely feeling the strain of continuous frontline deployment and may be awaiting rotation out of active combat duty. The extended duration of frontline operations could impact the soldiers’ morale and effectiveness.
Common Problems for Russian Commanders
Across the southern front, Russian commanders are likely facing common challenges. These challenges may include a shortage of artillery ammunition, which can limit their ability to provide firepower support during engagements. Additionally, a lack of reserves can limit their ability to reinforce frontline units or respond to unexpected developments. Securing the flanks of units in defense is also a potential concern, as vulnerabilities in flanking positions could be exploited by Ukrainian forces.
The British Intelligence update on the Ukraine War as of August 1 highlights the ongoing intensity and challenges faced by both Ukrainian and Russian forces in the southern sectors. The 58th Combined Arms Army is grappling with battle fatigue and attrition, while the defending Russian force is dealing with coordination issues and the strain of continuous frontline deployment. Shortages of ammunition, lack of reserves, and securing flanks are common concerns for Russian commanders. As the conflict persists, the situation remains fluid and subject to further developments on the ground.