British Intelligence update on Ukraine as of May. 14
On paper, the Russian Combined Grouping of Forces (CGF) in Ukraine is similarly organised to the invasion force of 446 days ago.
It still likely consists of over 200,000 personnel organized into around 70 combat regiments and brigades divided into five Groups of Forces. It still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.
However, in February 2022 it consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations.
Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilised reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.
Critically, it is unlikely that CGF has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges.
It is unlikely to be an organisation which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress.
